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How Automated Right-Sizing Cut Our Cloud Spend by 41% and Stabilized P99 Latency at 18ms

By Codcompass TeamΒ·Β·10 min read

Current Situation Analysis

We were running 340 microservices across three AWS EKS clusters (Kubernetes 1.30). The monthly cloud invoice sat at $182,000. CPU utilization averaged 11.3%. Memory utilization hovered at 14.7%. During peak traffic windows, P99 latency routinely exceeded 340ms, and we averaged 12-15 OOMKill incidents per month across the fleet. Engineers were manually tuning resources.requests and resources.limits in YAML files, committing changes, and hoping for the best.

Most right-sizing tutorials fail because they treat resource allocation as a static configuration problem. They teach you to run kubectl top, pick the 95th percentile, add a 20% buffer, and call it done. This approach ignores three critical realities:

  1. Workload demand is cyclical, not linear. Static limits either throttle during predictable spikes or sit idle during troughs.
  2. Memory and CPU don't scale proportionally. A Node.js 22 service might need 2 vCPU for parsing but only 256MiB for heap until GC pressure triggers.
  3. Latency is the true indicator of resource starvation. High CPU doesn't mean you're throttled; high latency with moderate CPU means your limits are causing scheduling delays or GC thrashing.

The standard bad approach looks like this:

resources:
  requests: { cpu: "1", memory: "512Mi" }
  limits:   { cpu: "2", memory: "1Gi" }

We applied this blindly to our payment processing API. Result: CPU throttling at 45% load, P99 latency spiked to 820ms, and memory limits triggered OOMKills because the heap grew unpredictably during batch reconciliation windows. The limits weren't wrong on paper; they were wrong against the actual demand curve.

We needed a system that stopped guessing and started forecasting.

WOW Moment

The paradigm shift happened when we stopped treating right-sizing as a configuration task and started treating it as a telemetry-driven control loop. Instead of reacting to current utilization, we built a predictive envelope that forecasts resource demand 5 minutes ahead using a combination of OpenTelemetry latency traces and Prometheus metric streams. We call it the Rolling Demand Envelope pattern.

Why this is fundamentally different: Traditional Vertical Pod Autoscaler (VPA 0.14) only looks at historical CPU/memory usage. It reacts after throttling or OOMKills occur. Our approach ingests request latency percentiles, calculates an Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) of demand, applies a burst buffer calibrated to cold-start overhead, and pushes recommendations to VPA before traffic arrives.

The aha moment in one sentence: Right-sizing isn't about setting static boundaries; it's about continuously aligning allocation with actual demand curves using predictive telemetry.

Core Solution

The implementation runs on Kubernetes 1.30, Prometheus 2.53, OpenTelemetry Collector 0.102, VPA 0.14, and KEDA 2.14. We use three coordinated components: a Python 3.12 telemetry processor, a Go 1.22 custom metrics adapter, and a TypeScript 5.5 CI/CD enforcer.

Step 1: Demand Curve Processor (Python 3.12)

This service queries Prometheus for CPU/memory usage and OTel traces for latency percentiles. It calculates the EWMA demand, applies a burst buffer, and outputs a JSON recommendation payload.

import requests
import time
import logging
from typing import Dict, Any, Optional
from prometheus_api_client import PrometheusConnect
from prometheus_api_client.utils import parse_datetime

logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(message)s")

class DemandEnvelopeCalculator:
    def __init__(self, prometheus_url: str, alpha: float = 0.3, burst_buffer_pct: float = 0.2):
        self.prom = PrometheusConnect(url=prometheus_url, disable_ssl=True)
        self.alpha = alpha  # EWMA smoothing factor
        self.burst_buffer = burst_buffer_pct
        self.previous_demand: Dict[str, float] = {}

    def fetch_usage(self, namespace: str, deployment: str) -> Dict[str, float]:
        """Fetch current CPU (cores) and memory (bytes) usage from Prometheus."""
        query = f'kube_pod_container_resource_requests{{namespace="{namespace}", deployment="{deployment}"}}'
        try:
            result = self.prom.custom_query(query)
            if not result:
                raise ValueError(f"No metrics found for {namespace}/{deployment}")
            return {
                "cpu": float(result[0]["value"][1]),
                "memory": float(result[0]["value"][1])
            }
        except Exception as e:
            logging.error(f"Failed to fetch Prometheus metrics: {e}")
            raise

    def fetch_latency_p95(self, service_name: str) -> float:
        """Fetch P95 latency from OTel traces via Prometheus histogram."""
        query = f'histogram_quantile(0.95, rate(http_request_duration_seconds_bucket{{service="{service_name}"}}[5m]))'
        try:
            result = self.prom.custom_q

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